I have been very interested/sobered to watch the unfolding conflict between the Russian Federation and the democratic nation of Georgia over the past few days. What began as a bid for Georgia to re-take its breakaway province of South Ossetia has escalated to a seeming full-on invasion by Russia. Russia initially sent tanks, soldiers and other materiel to protect its ethnic cousins/cheerleaders in South Ossetia. They insisted they were there for "peacekeeping" purposes only (yeah right), and that they would "punish" the aggression by Georgia. Lo and Behold!--however--the Russian forces have now begun bombing targets in Georgia proper, have taken a city well within the Georgian borders, and seem to be setting the stage for a possible takeover of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. They swear up and down that they won't--but you can judge for yourself whether their assurances are trustworthy. (Me personally: um, no)
On the one hand, I'm really trying to get my mind wrapped around Georgia's decision-making process as they ventured to re-take South Ossetia. First, South Ossetia is peopled with those who are ethnically-connected to Russia. Second, they have made it clear that they wish to become part of Russia. With those two considerations, did Georgia really think Russia would allow this attempt at re-consolidation to pass? It is interesting that their move was timed in sync with the beginning of the Olympic games in Beijing. Perhaps they thought they could get by with it unchallenged, with Russia's and the rest of the world's attention focused there. If that was their rationale, clearly it was ill-considered. As much as their move makes me scratch my head, I've also read that the USA and other NATO countries have long been concerned with the unpredictable, "loose cannon" traits shown by the Georgian president Saakashvili. It seems they're having trouble figuring out this situation themselves. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that behind closed doors, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice were pacing the floor, repeatedly exclaiming, "what were they thinking?!"
The situation is far more complicated than a bonehead play by Georgian leaders, however. The USA will not be able to afford to say to Saakashvili, "Sorry buddy--this was a stupid move on your part, and you'll have to bear the fallout. You're on your own." Factor one: Georgia has been a committed partcipant in the "War on Terror" and the 3rd-largest contributor to the US-lead coalition in Iraq (right behind the UK). Factor two: Georgia is the most dependably democratic and pro-West country in the area. They've been petitioning to join NATO, even--a move viciously opposed by Russia, who has saber-rattled and threatened a LOT concerning the subject. Notwithstanding, Georgia has a lot of strategic value to the USA, particularly given this energy crisis in which we find ourselves. If Russia continues to push, I do not know how the USA will be able to remain passive.
What's Russia's game here? They say they're only there for peacekeeping purposes--for righting the wrongs supposedly foisted by the Georgian military upon South Ossetians. They claim Georgia is attempting ethnic cleansing--while Georgia makes the precise same claim of Russia. Who has the moral high-ground is difficult to pinpoint. As Russia claims noble motives, however, their response to Georgia's action has clearly been disproportionate and swift. The coordination of their operations seems to indicate that this operation has been planned in advance. It could be that the Saakashvili regime's move against South Ossetia has provided just the pretext that Russia has been seeking for some time. Another factor which may embolden Russia to take things further: the United States and its allies are wearying of war in the Middle East. Between the twin fronts of Afghanistan and Iraq, we've been at it years now, at staggering cost. The bloom went off the rose of this war quite awhile ago. America's coalition is slowly dismantling, her allies quickly losing their resolve. The economic woes of America are well-known, between the crippling price of oil and the credit/mortgage/banking crisis. America is raw and tender at the moment, and it could be that Russia believes there's no time like the present to begin re-consolidating its old empire. Certainly this is the boldest military move it has taken against a sovereign state since its disastrous invasion of Afghanistan. Of course there's Chechnya, but that was an internal matter. This is a direct move against another country. The stakes have clearly risen markedly.
You know, when I was younger I used to watch potentially-prophetic developments with an almost giddy excitement. I'd think, "oooh! I bet things like this might lead to the End Times someday!" It was a sort of hobby/fantasy for a high school-age Christian kid--it was fun and exciting to daydream about these things, but I don't think I took any of it that seriously. These days, it seems that every significant political/strategic/military development in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Asia brings me up short. An eerie quiet hits me, almost like my heart stops for a beat or two. What would I liken it to? It feels like another shoe dropping, another tumbler falling into place within a safe which, once opened, will change the world forever. It's no longer fun speculation...it's starting to get...."weird."
In Ezekiel 38 and 39, God gives the prophet End-Times intelligence concerning a nation called "Gog" which is far to the north of Israel. Eschatologists have long correlated the geographic cues in the Ezekiel passage and elsewhere to equate "Gog" with Russia. It seems probable that Russia will play a leading role in a future coalition to attack and destroy the nation of Israel. Russia's partners in the venture appear to be Persia (Iran) and other Islamic states in the region. Russia's current-day, close ties with Iran can be no coincidence. It further seems to me that if a democratic Georgian government were taken out of Russia's way, it will have accomplished a very significant step south, toward Israel. There it would once again control a significant piece of Black Sea coastline, and the oil pipeline that starts at Baku, Azerbaijan, proceeds west and south through Georgia, and down to Turkey. From there, they would only have to treat with Turkey and Syria (and possibly Jordan) to be in Israel's back yard. If the situation in Iraq destabilizes after the coalition pullout, it might be very easy to sway as well.
With all this going on, I can't help but wonder. Could we be seeing some opening moves that will lead to Russia becoming the "Gog" of prophecy? Could it be that strategic alliances are even now being struck, and that Russia is moving to control strategic parcels of land in preparation of a bid to invade Israel and control the Middle East? I'm not arrogant enough to claim that I know, nor do I have this youthful glee about the whole thing. I just feel this weird sensation in the air. A feeling in my gut. I can't escape the feeling that things are going to get a lot more serious. Rather soon. I'm not making any definite claims. We'll just have to see.
In closing, here's a little word of caution to Russia, who will of course not heed a word of Biblical prophecy. Nonetheless, God's spelled out the outcome of Russia's future attack against Israel, rather clearly...
“Son of man, prophesy against Gog. Give him this message from the Sovereign Lord: I am your enemy, O Gog, ruler of the nations of Meshech and Tubal. 2 I will turn you around and drive you toward the mountains of Israel, bringing you from the distant north. 3 I will knock the bow from your left hand and the arrows from your right hand, and I will leave you helpless. 4 You and your army and your allies will all die on the mountains. I will feed you to the vultures and wild animals. 5 You will fall in the open fields, for I have spoken, says the Sovereign Lord. 6 And I will rain down fire on Magog and on all your allies who live safely on the coasts. Then they will know that I am the Lord. 7In this way, I will make known my holy name among my people of Israel. I will not let anyone bring shame on it. And the nations, too, will know that I am the Lord, the Holy One of Israel. 8 That day of judgment will come, says the Sovereign Lord. Everything will happen just as I have declared it. 9Then the people in the towns of Israel will go out and pick up your small and large shields, bows and arrows, javelins and spears, and they will use them for fuel. There will be enough to last them seven years! 10 They won’t need to cut wood from the fields or forests, for these weapons will give them all the fuel they need. They will plunder those who planned to plunder them, and they will rob those who planned to rob them, says the Sovereign Lord. 11 “And I will make a vast graveyard for Gog and his hordes in the Valley of the Travelers, east of the Dead Sea.[a] It will block the way of those who travel there, and they will change the name of the place to the Valley of Gog’s Hordes. 12 It will take seven months for the people of Israel to bury the bodies and cleanse the land. 13 Everyone in Israel will help, for it will be a glorious victory for Israel when I demonstrate my glory on that day, says the Sovereign Lord. 14 “After seven months, teams of men will be appointed to search the land for skeletons to bury, so the land will be made clean again. 15 Whenever bones are found, a marker will be set up so the burial crews will take them to be buried in the Valley of Gog’s Hordes. 16 (There will be a town there named Hamonah, which means ‘horde.’) And so the land will finally be cleansed. 17And now, son of man, this is what the Sovereign Lord says: Call all the birds and wild animals. Say to them: Gather together for my great sacrificial feast. Come from far and near to the mountains of Israel, and there eat flesh and drink blood! 18 Eat the flesh of mighty men and drink the blood of princes as though they were rams, lambs, goats, and bulls—all fattened animals from Bashan! 19 Gorge yourselves with flesh until you are glutted; drink blood until you are drunk. This is the sacrificial feast I have prepared for you. 20 Feast at my banquet table—feast on horses and charioteers, on mighty men and all kinds of valiant warriors, says the Sovereign Lord. 21In this way, I will demonstrate my glory to the nations. Everyone will see the punishment I have inflicted on them and the power of my fist when I strike. 22 And from that time on the people of Israel will know that I am the Lord their God." (Ezekiel 39:1-22, New Living Translation)
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